Monday, April 12, 2004

A Possible Scenario

Now I know why Lacson does not have a running mate and a 12-person senatorial slate... ;)

First we hear this "bad news" from the FPJ camp.

Handlers of Fernando Poe Jr. sought the help of President Joseph Estrada before the holidays in propping up his faltering campaign, sources said yesterday.

The sources said Poe was present during the meeting in Estrada's detention quarters in Tanay, Rizal, but only listened as his handlers briefed Estrada on the problems plaguing his campaign.

The sources said the briefing was conducted by Sen. Edgardo Angara, Horacio Morales of the Partido ng Masang Pilipino, and Estrada's friend Carmelo Santiago.

Poe came in a helicopter. Angara, Morales and Santiago followed also in a helicopter.

The sources said Poe's handlers complained to Estrada that some contributors have not made good on their promises.

The contributors apparently were disappointed by Poe's loss of momentum in surveys, the sources said.

"They thought Ronnie would pull away. It didn't happen. Now, they are holding on to their money," one of the sources said.

The sources said local leaders have become lukewarm because of dwindling "logistics."

"Apparently, some people at the top had made promises to local leaders. They failed to deliver," a source said.

The same source said the handlers appealed to Estrada to get in touch with the contributors.

In addition, Max Soliven confirmed this news info and wrote in his article yesterday that 2 choppers came to visit erap in Camp Capinpin. Ang laman ng unang chopper ay sila FPJ, Angara and Boy Morales. Erap was inside his bedroom when they visited him and did not immediately come out to greet them, even FPJ.

Then, a second chopper with Boy Asistio, Erap's buddy, arrived. Deretcho kaagad ang pasok ni Mr. Asistio sa loob ng bedroom ni Erap while Angara, FPJ and Morales waited patiently outside.

Finally, lumabas na rin si Erap at doon nagbigay ng "report" si Angara at Boy Morales na hindi raw maganda ang takbo ng kampanya ni FPJ. Funds are running low and the contributors have not delivered on their promise to support FPJ's campaign with big bucks.

Natatakot rin raw si Angara and company na if the Opposition did not unite, GMA -- with all the government resources at her disposal plus with a little help from the admin-friendly COMELEC -- might win this election... DAW!

(Max also mentioned na nag-resign na si Tito Sotto as FPJ campaign manager at si Jejomar Binay na ang pumalit.)

Tapos dagdagan mo pa nito, news about Ping and FPJ's fourth (and last?) meeting to unite the opposition yesterday:

Fernando Poe Jr. and Panfilo Lacson finally met yesterday, boosting chances the opposition can be unified to foil expected vote-buying and cheating by the administration on May 10, sources said yesterday.

The sources, who were responsible for getting the two candidates together after the cancellation of a one-on-one set last March 16, would not disclose the results of the meeting.

"We've done our part. Let's leave the announcement to the two principals," one of the sources said.

Now, let's guess kung ano ang magiging announcement or next move nila, shall we?

Ako, ito ang prediction ko: FPJ will step down to become Ping Lacson's VP.

Legarda will also slide down from VP to run for Senator under KNP, and Rep. Carlos Padilla (Lacson's lone senatorial candidate) rejoins the KNP senatorial slate.

Then Ping adopts the entire KNP senatorial lineup.

The inclusion of Legarda and Padilla in Lacson's senatorial team will mean that 2 other KNP senatorial candidates will be bumped out.

Hopefully, si Ernesto Herrera at si Sonny Escudero ang matanggal.

(Si Ernesto Herrera because he's a pro-EDSA DOS trapo and Sonny Escudero because replacement candidate lang siya originally for Caloy Padilla.)

Erap can also speed up the process and help push for a Ping-FPJ outcome by declaring that he si now switching his support to Ping Lacson instead of FPJ. Tapos sabihin rin niya kay FPJ privately na mas makakabuti na mag-VP na lang siya instead. I believe mas makikinig si FPJ kay Erap instead of Angara and Danding.

Additional thoughts. First, I think both FPJ and PING can beat GMA, as long as one of them drops out. Kasi alam kong lilipat ang mga boto ni FPJ kay PING kung umatras siya and vice versa.

Second, Ping has a better chance of beating GMA in a one-on-one matchup than FPJ. That's because unlike FPJ, Lacson doesn't an "Anybody but PING" movement.

Marami rin ang against kay GMA, that's why she too has an "Anybody but Gloria" movement.

But GMA is doing well against FPJ (despite her high negatives) because marami ang takot kay FPJ. Kahit na hindi si GMA ang first choice ng mga voters na ito, napipilitan silang lumipat kay pandak para lang hindi manalo si da king.

But if FPJ steps down and Ping becomes the opposition standard bearer, marami ang kakalas sa kampo ni GMA. Sasabihin ng mga middle class voters... FINALLY, a candidate from the opposition that is competent and highly qualified. Thank god we don't have to vote for GMA anymore just to prevent an FPJ victory!

You combine the Ping's middle class voters with the monolithic erap masa voters... SIMPLY UNBEATABLE!!!

Third, GMA's people focused most of their attacks on FPJ, which is good for Ping because they left him unscathed during the campaign season. Everybody's been attacking FPJ for being incompetent and dumb. At the same time -- Roco, Lacson, Brod Eddie and FPJ has also been attacking GMA for being corrupt and for being a huge palpak after she assumed the presidency.

If Ping becomes standard bearer, it will be too late for GMA to mount a serious demolition job on Ping. Everything the administration threw at Lacson before (rosebud, mawanay, corpus, blanquita pelaez, mateo, tulfo) has been ineffective at hindi na na ito sineseryoso ng mga publiko. I also think it's too late now to revive Kuratong again... and it will only look political if GMA is stupid enough to revive it for the nth time.

Besides, ano ba ang sabi ni GMA sa TV ad niya... "Trabaho lang, Walang personalan"? If they get nasty on Ping by reviving all those phony and manufactured criminal charges against him, then magmumukhang tanga na naman ulit si GMA dahil sinira na naman niya ulit ang pangako niya.

UPDATE: If Ping-FPJ materializes, malaki ang tsansa na manalo yung dalawa sa respective positions na gusto nilang makuha. Ping has an excellent chance of beating GMA, and FPJ is a shoo-in for VP.

As for Roco, sayang siya. I like both Roco and Lacson but a united opposition under Lacson has the best chance of beating GMA... so there.

I'm sure in the spirit of unity (after Ping and Poe wins), President Lacson will extend an olive branch to the Edsa dos people by asking Roco and Villanueva to serve in his cabinet.

Kasi hindi naman magkakagalit sila Lacson, Roco, Villanueva at FPJ eh. Si GMA lang talaga ang sumisira sa unity ng bansa natin.

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