Thursday, May 03, 2007

Misleading si Winnie Monsod

One of the "proofs" Winnie Monsod gave kung bakit nasabi niyang si Arroyo raw ang nanalo was because Arroyo's K4 coalition party won a huge majority of the House and gubernatorial, and mayoral seats noong 2004.

What is more, other circumstances obtaining during the campaign period support the conclusion that it is the claim of “illegitimacy” that is a lie: after all, her coalition party, K4, won 58 percent of senatorial seats, 87 percent of congressional seats, 85 percent of gubernatorial slots, 87 percent of city mayor seats, and 85 percent of all mayor seats. Either they carried her or she carried them, or there was some combination of both.

Sinagot ko siya dati dito, but after reading this propaganda from Ed Angara of TU, kailangan ko ulit i-address ang isyung ito.

Kasi sa political situation natin post-1986, the less dominant party (Ramos' LAKAS) and the opposition (Erap) were able to win the presidency in 1992 and 1998 respectively, kahit na talo ang parties nila pagdating sa number of House seats won.

Ramos did it in 1992 when he won the presidency. LDP won the majority of the House seats w/ 86 seats (with the hastily organized LAKAS party a distant second at 40 seats),

Image

LDP also won the 16 senate seats that year as opposed to LAKAS' 2.

but Ramos was able lure away a significant chunk of the LDP partymembers to his LAKAS a few months after the House convened.

The Lakas-NUCD-UMDP party was hastily organized for the 1992 election, after Defence Secretary Fidel Ramos lost the LDP presidential nomination to House Speaker Mitra. It was a merger of the newly formed Lakas ng EDSA (not to be confused with the Lakas ng Bansa) and the older National Union of Christian Democrats-Union of Muslim Democrats of the Philippines (NUCDUMDP) founded in 1984. From an original 40 elected members, it was able to expand to 119 after Ramos won the presidency. Out of the 104 re-elected members of the House, 88 were former LDP members in the Eighth House. After the 1992 election, the LDP lost 58 more members to Lakas, which successfully elected party stalwart Jose de Venecia Jr. (a former LDP member) as speaker of the house. Thus, from being the party with the most number of elected members, it slipped to third place with 25 remaining members. Formerly the major administration party under the Aquino administration, the LDP found itself as the opposition in the Ramos administration, deprived of access to patronage.

Same thing happened when Erap won in 1998. In spite of LAKAS winning the most House seats that year,

Image

nangyari rin sa kanila yung nangyari sa LDP noong 1992. many LAKAS members defected to Erap's party LAMMP after the 1998 elections.

After the election, LAMMP was reorganized into Laban ng Masang Pilipino(LAMP) and emerged as the new dominant party after the presidential victory of its candidate Joseph Estrada. Lakas suffered the same fate as its predecessor, the LDP, in the lower house. In spite of capturing the most house seats, its numbers quickly dwindled as members defected to the new administration party. The membership of LAMP swelled and the party was able to elect Manuel Villar (a former Lakas member) as the new speaker. Other political parties suffered defections as well.

ganyan rin probably ang mangyayari if FPJ became president, at marami sa mga kakampi ni Arroyo sa House at Senate ang lilipat sa panig ni FPJ-Angara.

BUT the point here is this: If you win the presidency o na-install ka bilang isa, magsisilipatan ang mga administration candidates sa panig mo (eg Chavit, Lito Atienza) And the admin party's success in the House, Senate, Mayoral and Gubernatorial races does not mean na panalo rin ang kandidato nila sa pagka-presidente, like what Maam Winnie is trying to suggest. In fact, FVR and erap have proven Maam Winnie wrong.

it's possible that Arroyo can win the House races. But what does that mean really?

the LDP party won big in 1992 House and Senate races, but mitra fared poorly (4th place?). LAKAS local bets won big in 1998 but manok JDV was pummeled to the ground by Erap.

UPDATE: Read this to from Conrad de Quiros and MLQ3. And this to from Manuel Buencamino.

3 comments:

manuelbuencamino said...

Sometime ago, I wrote an article on Winnie Monsod's bullshit. If you're interested, it's archived in the AER site.

manuelbuencamino said...

Oo nga pala. It's on http://www.aer.ph/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=353&Itemid=46

john marzan said...

thanks for the link, manuel.