Friday, February 05, 2010


Trends used to do interviews and data gathering for 3 poll firms in 2004 (SWS, Pulse, and NFO Trends)

Now in 2010 they're doing field work for Pulse Asia and Manila Standard Today's polls, and the numbers look similar:

In the SWS survey, which says it has its own field workers, had Noynoy Aquino at 42 percent and Manny Villar at 35 percent nationwide, an 8 percent difference. Erap Estrada was at 13 percent. Undecideds were pegged at 2 percent. Error margin was at 2.2 percent, plus-minus.

The Manila Standard Today (MST) also conducted its survey, with Trends utilized as its field workers’ organization, between Jan. 21 and 27. Respondents were 2,500. In its survey, MST had Noynoy Aquino at 36 percent nationwide and Villar at 34 percent, a statistical tie. Estrada was pegged at 13 percent. Check on the math for nationwide averages. It is clear that the MST’s survey is intended to deliberately bring down the numbers of Estrada, as Pulse Asia did and no doubt, SWS did too.

Pulse Asia also conducted a survey from Jan. 20 to 26, the same time frame as MST and to a certain extent, SWS’ time frame, also using Trends for its field work. Its respondent base was 1,800. In it, Aquino obtained 37 percent, Villar at 35 percent, or a statistical and Estrada at 12 percent.

As Trends was utilized by both MST and Pulse, validation by way of comparison, can’t be claimed.

Read the whole thing. Ninez explains why she finds the internal numbers suspicious.

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