Saturday, August 17, 2013

Thoughts on Hillary, Rubio and Ted Cruz

1) Rubio will be a much better GOP opponent against Hillary than the more combattive Ted Cruz. Cruz would have been great against Obama in 2012 where energizing and turning out the (angry) base is important. Against Hillary (female candidate), that might not work. Rubio OTOH, could duplicate what Obama did in 2008 vs Hillary and run on Hope and Change against the partisan and racially divisive Obama administration and Democratic Party. Do the voters want 4 more years of divisive, polarized politics under Obama-Clinton? Rubio has better credibility running as a non-divisive candidate over Ted Cruz.

In short: You go to war with Ted Cruz. You unite the country with Marco Rubio.

2) Only way Rubio has a shot at the 2016 nomination is if the Gang of 8 bill fails, and he proposes a better plan that is palatable to the base. Hopefully, something like this one.

Sunday, August 11, 2013

How Illegal Immigration in the USA got worse after 1982

Ezra Klein wrote:

After passage of a comprehensive immigration law in 1986, the U.S. began militarizing the border with Mexico even as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and, later, the North American Free Trade Agreement strengthened economic ties with Mexico. From 1986 to 2000, trade with Mexico increased eightfold....

 According to Massey, the rise of America’s large undocumented population is a direct result of the militarization of the border. While undocumented workers once traveled back and forth from Mexico with relative ease, after the border was garrisoned, immigrants from Mexico crossed the border and stayed.

“Migrants quite rationally responded to the increased costs and risks by minimizing the number of times they crossed the border,” Massey wrote in his 2007 paper “Understanding America’s Immigration ‘Crisis.’” “But they achieved this goal not by remaining in Mexico and abandoning their intention to migrate to the U.S., but by hunkering down and staying once they had run the gauntlet at the border and made it to their final destination.”

 Many Illegals did choose to stay in the USA after 1986, but NOT because of the "militarized border." The homesick migrant workers would have returned home if their families and kids were still in Mexico. And the so-called "militarized border" is still porous to this day, so not exactly that difficult to come in and out of the country illegally.

But the Supreme Court did decide on Plyler v Doe in 1982, giving non-US born children of illegal aliens free access to US K-12 Public Education. This allowed the indigent migrant worker the option to finally be able to bring their children to the USA and not worry about the cost of private education in the USA. And if you bring the kids, might as well bring the wifey too to look after them.

So question to Ezra Klein, why would the migrant worker self-deport back to Mexico if his family are already in the States and his children enrolled in LAUSD?

Again, it's not the fence. it's plyler v doe. if the mexicans want an amnesty deal, plyler v. doe needs to be overturned first for future illegals.