Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Who's afraid of Noli de Castro?

Sabi nila bakit pa natin i-impeach si Arroyo eh malapit nang matapos ang term niya? At paano na kung si Noli de Castro ang pumalit?

Sabi ni Ricky Carandang re the ZTE deal:

Personally, I don’t think this will lead to Gloria’s premature removal from office. Aside from having no hope that Congress will ever impeach her, I think too many of the elite cliques would oppose it at this late hour. With three years to go before she (presumably) steps down, her removal would intoduce a new element of uncertainty–a Noli de Castro presidency. By 2010, having tasted power for three years, Noli may want more and may resort to the same machinations to hold onto power as his predecessor. That in turn could usher in another prolonged period of political intramurals among the elites. Add to that the fact that Noli, like Erap,is considered by the establsihment to be an unacceptable outsider.

I'm not worried about Noli de Castro becoming our interim president. Besides, less than three years na lang ang term niya kung papalitan nya si Arroyo. Noli's not as bad as some people here thinks. He's well informed and competent.

(dapat may "special elections" para palitan si Arroyo dahil sa dayaan ng 2004 at hindi siya ang tunay na presidente. Pero kung matatanggal si Arroyo dahil sa ZTE at obstruction of justice, ibang usapan yan.)

By 2010, having tasted power for three years, Noli may want more and may resort to the same machinations to hold onto power as his predecessor.

Who says Noli will not run for office in 2010 if only we deny him a taste of the presidency? There's no rule that prevents Noli from running as the administration candidate in 2010.

Noli right now is having it easy running under the radar while Arroyo is rocked by scandals. None of the current Arroyo controversies so far has negatively affected Noli's political chances for the presidency because he has kept a low profile while supporting Arroyo behind the scenes since the Hello Garci scandal broke out.

If he is allowed to continue this course without suffering any consequences for his current support for Arroyo, then his chances for winning the presidency in 2010 after arroyo steps down--with his masa popularity coupled with administration's powerful "political machinery" (aka pera, dagdag bawas) still intact because no real reforms and credible personnel changes were made with ARroyo--is pretty darn good.

Noli's brain and fellow Wednesday club member Joker Arroyo will run Noli's presidential campaign.

But if Gloria Arroyo is impeached, her ability to fund and support Noli as successor will be rendered nil. At madadamay si Noli sa pagbagsak ni Arroyo dahil associated siya sa pekeng administration na to. And it'd be too late for him to flipflop and change sides because he should have done it back in 2005 pa. People will be reminded of Arroyo everytime the see Noli de castro as acting president--because he is part of the old corrupt and disgraceful administration whose head was impeached.

But if Arroyo survives, I don't see any weakening of Arroyo's ability to select our next president.

MORE: I don't mind removing arroyo now and having noli, pero para sa mga takot kay noli, how about impeaching and removing arroyo in 2009? at least isang taon na lang mamumuno si Kabayan. And "what to do with Arroyo" becomes an issue in the 2010 elections.


DJB Rizalist said...

I think Noli will fold and return to the Mass President of ABSCBN hehe. I hope he knows this isn't his league at all.

john marzan said...

let's hope you're right, dean.

john marzan said...

all i know is that all the recent moves made by noli is meant to keep the option open for 2010 if he wants to run.

but i think it is just as likely that the vice president will go back to abs-cbn and resume his media career.