Why I believe FPJ will lose to GMA

Nauna kung na-realize na pabagsak na si FPJ nung nabasa ko ito sa Malaya. Tapos, idagdag mo pa yung sumunod na balita sa latest survey results at yung pagalis ni roco sa kampanya...

The handwriting on the wall became clear na talaga.

There are three reasons (aside from the obvious) kung bakit hindi maganda ang takbo ng kampanya ni FPJ.

1) FPJ tried to distance himself from Erap - FPJ made the miscalculation of not embracing Erap and his anti-Edsa dos cause. And to make things worse, he invited Loren Legarda and Ernesto Herrera into his KNP coalition. Hindi ba ito ang dahilan kung bakit initially nagkagulo sa loob ng KNP at napikon sila Erap, Imee Marcos, Miriam, Jinggoy at Manong Maceda? Ito rin ang dahilan kung bakit hindi masyadong energized ang mga supporters ng opposition.

Of course, tuwang-tuwa naman si GMA na hindi naging issue si Erap sa eleksyon na ito dahil iniwasan talaga niya yung issue na yan. Because if the masa voters were reminded of the undemocratic and unconstitutional way erap was kicked out during edsa dos and the way erap and his family were mistreated and made convenient scapegoats (i.e. almost ALL the members of the estrada family were accused of plotting the Oakland Mutiny, remember), lahat ng galit ng masa ay napupunta kay GMA -- dahil siya ang simbolo (and the greatest beneficiary) ng Edsa Dos.

(But suddenly, naging mabait na si GMA this year kay Erap. Hmmm... bakit kaya? :) )

Tama si Rod Kapunan dito:

Instead of listening to Estrada who could have defined to him the meaning and the stand of the opposition, and the need to be identified as a real opposition party, he allowed himself to be coached by others. As a result, FPJ had to marginalize Estrada's Puwersa ng Masang Pilipino because he was probably told that identifying with it was more of a liability than an asset to his candidacy. Probably he was also told to ignore Butch Aquino's wing of the LDP as this would not cause a dent to the party. The net effect is that FPJ unnecessarily caused a split within the opposition umbrella and centrifugally drove away many of its influential leaders and propagandists who could have articulated his reason for running.

Among the serious blunders committed were as follows: One, FPJ failed to exert his efforts to reconcile with Lacson. Second, he aggravated the rift by choosing as his runningmate Sen. Loren Legarda, a known anti-Estrada basher and a protege of the Lopezes. Third, he failed to realize that while the LDP members constitute an elite handful in the opposition, it was the Puwersa ng Masang Pilipino that could deliver the manpower needed. Fourth, he diluted the opposition ticket by including candidates who sought the impeachment of the man who now sits as the venerable leader of the opposition.

2) FPJ did not use Edsa dos as an issue against GMA - Ito pa yung isang isyu na AYAW pagusapan ni GMA dahil takot siya sa masang supporters ni erap. Ewan ko ba kung bakit hindi ginamit ni FPJ yung issue na ito laban kay GMA when this is a major plus for him. It would have reminded erap's voters of what GMA did to their guy and this will get them angry, energized, AND HIGHLY MOTIVATED to oust GMA.

(But I guess advice na naman ito ni Angara na wag banggitin at siraan ang Edsa Dos para hindi raw "ma-offend" ang civil society. LMAO!!!)

Besides, hindi na popular ang edsa dos, hindi ba? pati sa mga edsa dos anniversary gatherings -- nilalangaw ang mga ito, right? Even most edsa dos participants are very disappointed sa outcome -- dahil palpak at mas corrupt pa ang presidente na pumalit kay erap.

So, nobody (aside from GMA loyalists and Cardinal Sin) will really get angry if you slam or mock Edsa Dos.

BECAUSE NOBODY REALLY CARES ANYMORE ABOUT EDSA DOS.

3) FPJ refused to attack GMA directly on her vulnerable issues - Isa na namang malaking kabobohan ito. Obvious naman na corrupt at garapalan na ang pandaraya ni GMA, pero ayaw ni FPJ birahin si GMA dito. OTOH, binibira naman ng kampo ni GMA si FPJ by trying to get him disqualified and attacking him personally.

Attack ng attack si GMA at defend lang ng defend si FPJ. Bad strategy ito, FPJ. Kung puro defend ka lang ng defend, mawawala ang lead mo sa surveys.

Dapat, ikaw ang umatake. Dahil marami namang pwedeng tirahin kay GMA eh... like yung problema ng mga pidal sa corruption, yung garapalan na pandaraya, IMPSA, Telecoms scam, yung corrupt na COMELEC appointees ni GMA, yung corrupt na SC appointees ni GMA, yung obstructionist na mga admin senators ng administration niya...

You can't let your surrogates do all the attacking for you dahil walang papansin sa kanila. You have to do it yourself.

SOLUTION

If FPJ does not want to see a HUMILIATING DEFEAT on May 10, he better step down na to become Lacson's VP. Kasi kahit na mag-join forces sila FPJ at Ping (with FPJ as presidential candidate), wala nang pagasa si Poe kay GMA. Ever since sumali si Poe sa presidential race, pabagsak ng pabagsak ang ratings niya. Better quit while there's still time FPJ, and pass the baton to Lacson.

I say this because aside from the fact that you are NOT QUALIFIED to be our president -- I ALSO DON'T WANT TO SEE GMA WIN.

AND YOU'RE THE MAIN REASON KUNG BAKIT MANANALO SI GMA.

GMA V. FPJ, Whoever Wins... We Lose.

If you feel na parang nasayang lang ang time and effort mo sa kampanya sa pagka-presidente -- hindi totoo yan. Kasi, you would have served unwittingly as Lacson's "stalking horse"... which is good, because most of the GMA dirty tricks campaign ay naka-focus sa iyo.

Another thing... you would help this country by keeping the Lopezes out of Malacanang by winning the VP race.

I'm not saying Lacson should do all the 3 things listed above na FPJ did not do. Iba kasi ang sitwasyon sa kanya. He should work real hard to attract the anti-GMA voters, kasi marami ito and at the same time secure his base.