This election is all about accountability, fighting corruption, good governance, and having an honest and credible government...
iba ang strategy para sa Senate election campaign at sa House. National issues sa Senate races, at dapat nationally known ang mga candidates mo.
Sa House races naman, more on local issues, pero pwedeng i-nationalize ang mga House races. The Democrats did that in 2006 on the Iraq issue, and the beat the Republicans badly in their own midterm elections.
Last time, I focused on the Senate Strategy. Ngayon House strategy naman para sa Opposition.
First off, I think the Opposition shouldn't be just settling for 80 House seats in Congress (Eighty is the number needed to impeach Arroyo). Because this is more than just impeaching Arroyo. This IS about changing the culture of corruption and pork barrel style politics in Malacanang and in Congress, and throwing the corrupt politicians and bums out of power.
Winning eighty is nice, but it doesn't get us control of the House. The only way we can make meaningful changes and reforms in the system is if we gain the majority in the House. That means winning more than half of the House seats.
Winning the majority will be more difficult than just winning 80, but because of the Arroyo factor, I believe it's doable and a goal worth pursuing.
Okay, before we go to the main issues that the Opposition House candidates should run on, I want address "Local Races, Local Issues" rule first. I believe the opposition should allow their local candidates some leeway to decide on some local issues, like whether they should run as pro- or anti-Charter Change.
For example, if the polls in Cebu show that CHA CHA is popular in certain areas/districts in Cebu, then my advice for the Cebu opposition candidate is to support Cha Cha to negate his opponents advantage on that issue. OTOH, a local candidate from the Manila or Laguna can run against Arroyo's CHACHA and clobber his opponents with this issue, especially with the way many of these tongressmen CHA CHA supporters recklessly pushed CON ASS down our throats. Pero nasa local candidate na yan kung anong position ang hahawakan nya. Judgment call na niya yan.
(Ito pa ang isang example: Sa US politics, a Democrat will have difficulty winning in Southern states (or in the Bible belt) if he's perceived as too liberal. That's why Democrats National Committee tend to recruit democrats with conservative or moderate platforms to run in places like Tennessee, South Carolina, Arkansas or Alabama. Pagdating naman California or New York state elections, a Republican who's very conservative on social issues has little chance of succeeding in these liberal "blue" states. Only moderate or liberal pro-Choice Republicans like Rudy Giuliani or Arnold Schwarzenegger can do well.)
Anyway, after the CON ASS incident, it is likely na pati yung mga dating pabor sa CHA CHA ay na-turn off na rin sa pinaggagawa nina JDV, the Proseperos, Lagman, et al, and their actions have convinced many of thsoe inclined to support CHA CHA that this may not not be the right time to do CHA CHA, and that the people behind this "clamor" may not be the most credible or trustworthy.
(Here's another tip: Against these shameless ten, it would be wise for the local opposition candidate to run against CHACHA, to help remind voters of their roles in the CON ASS.)
1) Luis Villafuerte, Camarines Sur
2) Edcel Lagman, Albay
3) Prospero Pichay, Surigao del Sur
4) Prospero Nograles, Davao City
5) Douglas Cagas, Davao del Sur
6) Constantino Jaraula, Cagayan de Oro
7) Simeon Datumanong, Cotabato
8) Arthur Defensor, Iloilo
9) Matt Defensor, Quezon City
10) Rodolfo Antonino, Nueva Ecija
Pero i'm sure nagtataka kayo kung bakit iba yung advice ko sa Senate Opposition candidates at sa House Opposition candidates pagdating sa CHA CHA. Kung nabasa nyo yung advice ko para sa mga Senate Opposition Candidates, ang sabi ko:
The Senate candidates should run against Arroyo's Cha Cha proposal. Most people are against Arroyo's CHA CHA push, and think that the issue is too toxic, too divisive to take up right now. As a national issue, running against CHA CHA is a winner for the opposition senate candidates.
Yung CHA CHA as a national issue is still unpopular for majority of Filipinos (probably even more after CON ASS). That's why even Mike Defensor was smart enough to distance himself from the administration's continuing CHA CHA moves. And he's distancing himself from Arroyo's CHA CHA because he plans to run for Senator, dahil national election ito, he'd hurt his candidacy if he adopted the administration aggressive stance on CHA CHA.
More Later: Part 2 ng strategy para sa House Candidates
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1 comment:
Manuel: we should not be tricked into making cha-cha an issue in the May election. Let's not lose focus...
So focus on defeating Gloria and you defeat her cha-cha without turning it into an distraction as an election issue.
nobody's getting tricked, manuel. Of course Arroyo should be the main issue. But you're assuming the administration will just roll over and play dead.
The reason why they keep bringing back CHA CHA issue from the dead is because it was effective as a diversionary tool from her (although not enough to get the Constitution actually changed). Some of her allies in the South will probably run on cha cha this election campaign and sell it as "reforms" to change the subject from Arroyo. And it could work in some areas in the South, although i can't imagine CHA CHA being popular now (even with true believers of CHA CHA) after their CON ASS stunt.
But still, if a local candidate in Cebu tries to make CHA CHA an issue, and the polls show the issue is indeed popular in that local area, then I have no problems with the opposition recruiting an pro-CHA CHA, anti-GMA candidate.
But nationally, I believe there's little support for CHA CHA because the people pushing for it have little credibility with the public, and if Arroyo's Senate candidates ran on the issue, it is not because CHA CHA is the right thing to do, but because they'd rather talk about CHA CHA than explain Arroyo's legitimacy, ethical or corruption problems. And they'll still lose.
Cha cha should not be even an issue, but it has become one, because Arroyo wanted it to divert people's attention (and buy off the tongressman's support) from her GLORIAGATE, and her PHILHEALTH, Bolantic scams.
Manuel: The election is about Gloria. Candidates, local or national, should be made to stand for or against Gloria.
I fully agree.
Manuel: We can talk about chacha after Gloria is gone. Without Gloria, the urgency for cha-cha will be gone.
Agreed. I believe the only time we can have a serious CHA CHA discussion is after 2010, when GMA says she plans to leave office raw, or if she gets impeached or People Powered. For now, CHA CHA is just too divisive and too toxic an issue.
And Arroyo planned it that way, as a wedge issue, because she wanted to divide the people and divert their attention from her admin's ethical and legitimacy problems.
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