Sandali lang kuya Manuel...

Tama si pareng Willy, winning by a majority would be nice, but what arroyo needed after edsa dos was a clear mandate, an outcome that is credible and accepted by everybody, even her opponents -- and not necessarily winning by a majority.

Because of massive fraud in the 2004 elections, Arroyo never had that mandate (nor legitimacy.) but thru dagdag bawas, Arroyo was able to stay in power after 2004.

Eto pa ang analysis ni kuya Manuel re our past presidential election results.

The traditional strengths of the presidency haven’t been there for some time: a majority and not plurality mandate, and a party machinery solid enough to last at least as long as an administration’s term. The last time a president achieved an unquestionable majority was in 1965; the last real landslide was in 1969. Since then, the best percentage a post-Edsa president has managed was 39.6 percent (Estrada in 1998). But this only put him on a par with the most underwhelming presidency of the Third Republic, that of Carlos P. Garcia, lone plurality president of his time, who obtained 41.3 percent (over time, it’s the percentage, not the number of votes that matters, since our population is always increasing).

Hookay... Eto yung resulta ng past presidential elections from 1946-1998:

1946
roxas 2,471,926 - 54%
osmena sr. 1,129,996 - 45%
hilario moncado 8,538 - 0.34%

1949
quirino 1,803,808 - 51%
laurel 1,318,320 - 37%
Jose Avelino 419,890 - 12%

1953
magsaysay 2,912,992 - 69%
Quirino 1,313,991 - 31%

1957
Garcia 2,072,257 - 41%
Yulo 1,386,829 - 28%
Manahan 1,049,420 - 21%
Recto 429,226 - 8.55%
Quirino 60,328 - 1.2%
Santos 21,674 - 0.43%
Abcede 470 - 9.36e-5

1961
Macapagal 3,554,840 - 55%
Garcia 2,902,966 - 45%

1965
Marcos 3,861,324 - 52%
Macapagal 3,187,752 - 43%
Manglapus 384,564 - 5.2%
7 Others total 791 - 1.06e-2%

1969
Marcos 5,017,343 - 61%
Osmena Jr. 3,143,122 - 38%
10 Others total 1,339 - 1.64e-2%

1981
Marcos 18,309,360 - 91%
Alejo 1,716,449 - 9%

1986
Marcos 9,795,337 - 54%
Aquino 8,283,859 - 46%

1992
Ramos 5,342,521 - 24%
Santiago 4,468,173 - 20%
Cojuangco 4,116,376 - 18%
Mitra 3,316,661 - 15%
Marcos 2,338,294 - 10%
Salonga 2,302,123 - 10%
Laurel 770,046 - 3.4%

1998
Estrada 10,956,610 - 39.6%
De Venecia 4,390,853 - 15.9%
Roco 3,772,505 - 13.6%
Osmena 3,363,599 - 12.1%
Lim 2,397,224 - 8.7%
de Villa 1,337,856 - 4.8%
Santiago 807,506 - 2.9%
Enrile 344,532 - 1.2%
Marcos 247,094 - 0.89%
Dumlao 39,833 - 0.14%
Morato 19,770 - 7.14e-2%

Sabi ni mlq3:

The last time a president achieved an unquestionable majority was in 1965;

1965? Marcos only won by 52% over Macapagal's 43%.

Hindi ba ang sagot ay 1969? Where Marcos won by 61% over Osmena's 38%. Unless there was dayaan involved in the 1969 elections that i do not know of.

Since then, the best percentage a post-Edsa president has managed was 39.6 percent (Estrada in 1998). But this only put him on a par with the most underwhelming presidency of the Third Republic, that of Carlos P. Garcia, lone plurality president of his time, who obtained 41.3 percent (over time, it’s the percentage, not the number of votes that matters, since our population is always increasing).

Kaya mahirap makakuha ng majority victory ngayon ay dahil maraming major candidates ang sumasali sa presidential elections after edsa 1986.

Before 1986, it was pretty much a 2- or 3-way race for the presidency -- 1946, 1949, 1953, 1961, 1965, 1969, and the so called elections during 1981 (where marcos won with saddam hussein like numbers), and 1986.

The one time in 1957 where there were four big name candidates (fourth placer si Claro M. Recto sa election), Garcia did not reach above 50%.

Mahirap na talagang makakuha ng majority dahil sa dami ng malalakas ng presidential candidates na sumasali. FVR should know. tignan mo yung 1992. Six candidates (Ramos, Miriam, Cojuangco, Mitra, Imelda, Salonga) got double digit percentages in the number of votes cast. (Pero nakapag-govern naman si tabako ano, kahit na 24% lang ang nakuha niya).

Tignan nyo yung 1998 elections. Four candidates got 10% or more of the votes (fifth placer Fred Lim got 8.7%). There were 10 nationally recognized names running for the presidency at that time (erap, JDV, Roco, Osmena, Lim, de villa, imelda, enrile, santiago, morato). Mahahati talaga ang boto nyan.

Imagine if the Democrats and Republicans did away with the primaries at karambola ang nangyari. For the Democrats, si Hillary (first woman prez candidate), Barack Obama (first african american prez candidate), John Edwards, at Bill Richardson (latino vote, terrific resume) ang tatakbo. Sa Republicans naman, si Rudy Guliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney (First Mormon candidate).
7 nationally recognized candidates (with Bill richardson the least popular), sa tingin nyo ba may aabot rin ng 50% votes sa kanila pagdating ng 2008 presidential election???

Unlike kuya manuel, i think legit yung landslide ni erap, kahit na hindi majority ang nakuha niya.

There's a 23.7% difference between Erap and his nearest rival JDV. That was the biggest margin of victory since Marcos trounced Osmena Jr. in 1969 (23% difference). And second only to Magsaysay's dominance over Quirino (a whopping 38% difference).

Kahit na i-add mo yung percentage totals ng 2nd placer JDV at 3rd placer Roco (combined 29.5%), lamang pa rin si Estrada.

If you add JDV, Roco and Lito Osmena's vote percentage (41.6% total), talo lang nila si blundering plunderer by 2% points.