I have to disagree again with Philippine Commentary

From Dean J Bocobo:

Time has run out on the People's Initiative if Ed Ermita is right that January 15 is the drop dead date for a plebiscite to ratify the proposed unicameral Parliament. Given that the Supreme Court has not ruled at this late date, the November 15 deadline for a certification of sufficiency simply cannot be met in time to set up a plebiscite before the 2007 election becomes unstoppable. I think it already is ... and so the Palace's greatest fear, the emergence of a powerful, solidly Oppositionist Senate

not really. As long as the control the House, walang impeachment complaint ang papasa.

from the tribune.

Palace drops Senate, banks on House in ’07 elections

By Sherwin C. Olaes

10/23/2006

Apparently sensing it has been losing support in the Senate, Malacañang has trained its sights on the House of Representatives, admitting empowering the Arroyo administration’s local front to ensure landslide victory either in a regular or parliamentary elections next year....

He added they have no concrete preparations for the 2007 senatorial slate of the administration as their objective is really to empower the local fronts and congressional districts especially when the parliamentary election takes place.

yung pork barrel na nakasiksik sa election budget ng kaalyado ni Arroyo will be a huge factor in the admin efforts to maintain status quo in the House, aside from garciing some local elections here and there.

(yung mga bumoto para patayin ang impeachment have a huge money advantage over the opposition and their challengers.)

UPDATE: DJB has more comments in MLQ3's blog here:

What is the Palace’s worst nightmare? That the Opposition will capture the Senate in the 2007 elections.

Why? Well consider the fact that if GMA had been impeached in 2005 or 2006, the likelihood is that she would have been acquitted on trial in a Senate that is presently in Admnistration hands.

But in 2007, every statistical survey shows the handwriting on the wall: the Senate will be solidly Opposition in 2007, with a strong potential to have 2/3 for conviction if the Palace keeps behaving as it has.

If that happens, the President becomes vulnerable to impeachment in the House, since those who vote for impeachment can have a greater assurance that they won’t be clobbered if she is acquitted in the Senate.

An Upper House that is perceived to be inclined to convict her will make her look like a nail in a hammer factory to the Lower House.

The greater the Opposition victory is in the Senate next year, the greater the chances of a House impeaching her.

You mean marami talagang anti-arroyo sa House, DJB... pero ayaw lang nilang bumoto para sa impeachment dahil natatakot sila na ma-makalusot si Arroyo sa Senate trial (ala Erap style)?

Pero paano na kung nadagdagan nga ang opposition sa senado, pero wala pa ring pagbabago sa composition ng admin-opposition members sa House?