For a year now I have been bombarded by the same question from so many people – even asking myself the same thing: Why aren’t the ordinary folks rising up in anger?
Expats have asked me this, surprised that accusations leveled against our government have not resulted in its ouster, when a similarly situated government in their countries would have fallen immediately.
Oh, I don't know. But the trend recently is not a positive one for democracy movements around the world.
And it's not true na any accusations of election fraud in other countries would have "resulted in its ouster" or "would have fallen immediately."
Not in our country.
And not in Belarus, where there was also massive election cheating done by incumbent president Alexander Lukashenko to maintain his grip on power.
Here's Robert Mayer (back in March 22, 2006) on the Belarus opposition's diminishing number of protesters (from estimated 30,000 people down to 10,000, then to 7,000, then to a few hundreds left...) and the chances of a successful "revolution" or "people power" to overthrow the corrupt and cheating Lukashenko. Tell me if what he describes is not similar to our situation:
The ongoing protests in Belarus since Sunday leave much to be desired; that is, if you’re expecting a colored revolution immediately. Sunday saw well over 10,000 people rallying in October Square, about half that on Monday, and slightly more on Tuesday. You really can’t help but be down on it — the chances are slim to none. The mainstream media especially is hedging its bets against the protestors based on the dwindling numbers.
Due to ongoing news coverage, I haven’t really been able to get my thoughts down completely. Here they are. Though there may not be a revolution, here is why you should have hope.
The reason there are only a few hundred people left on the square is because those are the most fearless, most adamant demonstrators who have vowed to hold the square. Milinkevich has announced that Saturday, March 25, will be the day when everyone will return to the square. No matter what the immediate result, it will not be a finale, but the beginning of Lukashenko’s end. While the press is pessimistic on the numbers, it doesn’t go into the reasons why this is so. I’m not sure if these writers assume that Belarus is a country where people can freely organize or what, but there are many strategic factors impeding the protest.
Lukashenko has taken up a strategy rather different than that of Ukraine’s Kuchma — where the crowds were actually allowed to gather — or Uzbekistan’s Karimov — where the crowd was massacred. Instead of breaking up the protestors, he is simply blockading them. Riot police were sent to all surrounding neighborhoods to prevent anyone from joining the protest or bring the current demonstrators food. Likewise, if anyone left the protest, they’d be arrested immediately and not allowed to return. Police were also stationed at the train terminals, searching anyone who might have a tent or other materials that would help the opposition. That’s why the protest never grew to more than 7000 at time — nobody was allowed to join!
However, something can be said about the number of people trying to join. All of the people on October Square has friends and relatives trying to bring them food and warm things. Cars driving by honked in solidarity with them (the police are now fining people for this). Though the television is completely owned by the state and constantly broadcasted pro-Lukashenko propaganda, radio, internet, telephone, and word of mouth got out news about the demonstration and opposers to Lukashenko’s rule slowly began to stream in from the outlaying regions. But they were stopped.
The real number of protestors are much greater than those who have physically been able to make it to the square. Due to the tactics that Lukashenko employs, and his overwhelming control of most media, he is able to make it appear to most people that the opposition rally is so “pathetic” that he isn’t even going to bother to clear them off the square.
Read the whole thing. A day after Robert wrote that, ito yung update niya. This is how people power violently ended in Belarus:
Today at 3.30 a.m. hundreds of riot policemen and policemen have attacked tent camp on October Square in Minsk. At 3 a.m. 10 police buses and patrol wagons for prisoners encircled the square. Policemen cordoned off the whole square. All reporter were drawn out of the cordons. Then several hundreds of people who were in the tent camp this bight were arrested. All of them where taken to the police buses and trucks, and taken to unknown location. Now only destroyed tents stay on the square. The life of the tent camp was trampled on by boots of policemen and police: national flags, posters, streamers, warm things, dishes. Everything is loaded to cars by street sweepers. Information has been received from people from police trucks that some special means were employed against them. People complain that some gas was used inside one of the white trucks.
[…]
As the Charter`97 press center was informed by Tatsyana Snitko, who was detained by police together with tent camp dwellers, people in buses were beaten up. As she told, many young men have smashed faces, and policemen used foul language and threatened. During the detention policemen ordered: everybody on the floor, faces down!
Well, at least the Belarus opposition and its people has the support of the US and EU. They even imposed sanctions against Belarus because of their rigged elections.
Sa atin naman, deadma lang ang US at EU sa dayaan na nangyari noong 2004. tapos sinusportahan pa ng US si Arroyo dahil important ally raw siya sa WAR ON TERROR. sigh.
So lets fast forward to June 20, 2006. Kumusta na ang efforts ng Belarus opposition na mapatanggal yung pekeng presidente nila na si Lukashenko? Not looking very good.
Here are some of the recent posts on Belarus' opposition:
- Belarus opposition activist gets 3-year sentence...
- Belarus: Opposition members keep vanishing
- Belarus opposition journalist requests political asylum
- Belarus Arrests Main Opposition Leader and 3 other authorities
And this one from Samizdata on May 10, 2006:
Now that the protests are no longer anticipating the overthrow of the Lukashnko government in a display of 'people power', the mainstream media moves elsewhere. The narrative of the post-Soviet dictator in Belarus is an uncomfortable fit with the comforting delusions of the West. The latest project to promote civil society is the radio station funded by the EU, the USA and the Czech Republic, broadcasting out of Warsaw. It has a mixture of healthy cultural programming and news, blah blah blah blah...
Just to remember that this is another day in Belarus: Anatoly Lebedko, opposition leader of the Belarussian United Civil Party was detained whilst attending an unofficial protest on the seventh anniversary of former Interior Minister Yury Zakharenko's disappearance; and graffiti artist Artur Finkevich was imprisoned for two years hard labour, after writing "We want a change".
Lukashenko is the enemy of change, improvement and progress: all of these trends will end his reign, or force him to fundamentally adapt to new ways. Now that there are more windows on the world, the yearning for change amongst those who can only spectate becomes ever more desperate.
Sayang talaga. Unlike the successful Orange Revolution of Ukraine in 2005, the illegitimate belarus gov't used new tactics to successfully thwart any "people power" attempt from the belarus opposition. Guess kung kanino nila natutunan yung CPR-like tactics nila? LOL.
We invented people power. But we also invented it's antidote.
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