Here's how I see it. US political support is one of the few things helping keep this corrupt, unethical, and illegitimate president in power.
Arroyo has twice sought a strong US alliance during her term.
the first time was after 9/11 (from 2001-2004). She did that because of her legitimacy issue and other political problems, especially after edsa tres. She ascended the presidency under unusual and extra-constitutional circumstances (okey, a coup) and many people were questioning her legitimacy.
Then after “winning” her re-election and gaining her “legitimacy”, she made a calculated move to become more “independent” of the US and distanced herself from the Coalition and Iraq. That's why it was so easy for her kowtow to the kidnappers and bow out of iraq prematurely.
Of course, that got the US angry, which meant aid cuts. But arroyo had a backup plan. She immediately began courting China to offset the expected decrease in US aid and support. She played the China Card (which is the equivalent of vitual middle finger at the US), not knowing that she will need the US again when her legitimacy issue will surface again.
the worsening "cold war" between the US and RP from late 2004-mid 2005 got so bad, that the ARroyo administration at one time even made a move to recall all the Pinoy contract workers working in iraq (this is different from the RP troop pullout). take note of the article's date (April 27, 2005). Meaning Before "GLORIAGATE."
U.S. TROUBLED OVER RP CALLS FOR PINOYS TO LEAVE IRAQ
MANILA, April 27, 2005 (STAR) By Pia Lee-Brago - The United States is troubled by the Philippine government’s attempts to persuade Filipino workers to leave Iraq.
US officials in Manila have repeatedly aired their concerns over the repatriation of Filipinos working in military bases in Iraq, Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo said Monday night.
But Romulo said he had told the US embassy officials that the priority of the Philippine government is the security of Filipino workers.
"We have to explain to them that our obligation is to our citizens," he said.
Romulo said the US cannot make the Philippines change its stand.
"We are a sovereign country, and we have to protect our citizens. That’s the law. That’s in the Constitution," he said.
The government has urged all Filipino workers in Iraq to avail of voluntary repatriation following the death of two Filipinos in two suspected militant attacks this month.
Records from the Department of Foreign Affairs showed that around 6,000 Filipinos still work in US military camps in Iraq.
Most of the workers provide non-military services as food servers and kitchen helpers to the troops.
Their withdrawal from Iraq is expected to have an adverse impact on the operation of the camps since Filipinos make up the largest number of foreign workers in the camps.
The second time Arroyo pledged loyalty to the US was after the gloriagate tapes surfaced.
the reason why the US has supported her again (after dropping her off from the “Coalition of the Willing”) is because arroyo has twice during her term pledged to protect their interests in exchange for political support, so there’s really no reason for the US to “rock the boat”.
This is a classic example of the Scowcroftian “realist policy”, the one the US practiced during Marcos' time.
MORE: From Nahncee:
US out of Everywhere ... including withdrawal of all aid monies, too.
Well, there's the "China Card" option. Arroyo played it before, there's no reason why she can't play it again.
And coupled with a potential move like this from the Administration, things could get ugly.
UPDATE: In other news, Malapit na talaga ang election.
In June last year, GMA announced an all-out war against the New People’s Army (NPA). She directed the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Philippine National Police (PNP) to crush the insurgents in one to two years time.
Right-thinking AFP generals quietly disputed this decision. Lately, no less than the AFP chief of staff announced a three year timetable to defeat the NPAs by 2010.
Now she’s playing games again, this time with the poor. She announced that she plans to reduce poverty by 50 percent in 2007. How? By handouts of rice? By election dole-outs? By hiring 1 million more kalsada cleaners? With the Neda and investment houses projecting a 5.5 to 5.7 percent growth in 2007, she should be very lucky if she reduces poverty by 10 percent in 2007. To make a dent on poverty and unemployment the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have said a 7 percent gross domestic product must be attained.
The best way to reduce poverty is for GMA to step down and give another president a try at the problem.
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