Should I still take your blog seriously, Wretchard?

Let's start with this one:

Although some commentators considered this estimate of the Philippine situation "too pessimistic", this is implosion is exactly what has happened. The New York Times reports that ten Philippine cabinet secretaries have resigned and asked Gloria Macapagal to do the same on the grounds that it is better for her to depart the office legally than to face being turned out by extralegal means.

I expected those things to happen Wretchard, the more people know re her crimes. And expect more allies to cut their ties with Arroyo, the longer she clings to power.

Although some commentators considered this estimate of the Philippine situation "too pessimistic"

Oh Wretchard, you're so clever. I criticized you for being "too pessimistic", not because you said the Philippines situation will get worse if GMA didn't resign (and it will get worse if she continues to stay in power), but because you wrote that the Philippine will get worse if GMA resigned. You said Arroyo's replacement will be worse than her or "it won't make a difference".

But whereas in the old days nearly everyone would have welcomed the fall of a crook and fraudster, the prospect of the Nth "People's Power" revolution has filled many Filipinos with dismay. Not out of love for Gloria Macapagal but out of fear for what may follow.

As you know Wretchard, your line re the Philippines getting somebody worse if Arroyo is removed is the same argument being used by the Malacanang spokesperson and many Gloria Macapagal Arroyo allies.

And re the argument from some pro-Arroyo supporters that Arroyo is RP's only hope and that there are "no credible alternatives", that's not true. I say bullshit to that.

The rub is that Arroyo's constitutional successor is a corrupt ex-TV anchorman called Noli de Castro, now vice-President, who rose to stardom on the back of his signature opening line. "Good evening" (long pause) "everybody". Apart from the fact that de Castro is singularly unqualified to do anything outside of show business, the balkanized Philippine political system cannot even agree on whether the vice-president is in the line of succession.

Why should Noli replace Arroyo when Arroyo is not the real president in the first place? If there was evidence indicating that Arroyo stole the 2004 elections one week after she was proclaimed "winner", would we even be discussing whether or not Noli de Castro should succeed Arroyo and be the new president? Of course not. What will happen is that we will have an election rerun to elect a new president, like in Ukraine.

Ang gagawin lang ni Noli or Drilon is to take the role of "acting president", organize new elections, and wait for the outcome.

(Speculation alert) Here's what I estimate will happen in the Philippines. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo will be driven from office one way or the other. She will be replaced by vice-buffoon Noli de Castro, or some other nonentity, who will last another six months, if that. Following that, the Philippines could enter a period of complete instability, under which paradoxically enough, things will proceed more or less normally since the government hardly functions as it is. The Philippine government may then descend into the modern counterpart of Rome's Year of Four Emperors, where multiple and successive "Presidents" finish out the remainder of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's original term. Then the real danger will begin. It is hard to predict the exact form of the peril but it may take either the shape of a coup de etat attempt against a discredited State or one of the "Presidents" may set up a rival capital in a regional center like Cebu in the Visayas or Davao City in Mindanao. If that point is reached there will probably be clamor for international intervention under the auspices of a regional body like ASEAN under which a caretaker government will be appointed until UN supervised (yeah I know) elections are held to re-establish legitimacy. It would be a catastrophe of the first order.

Should I start calling you "excitable Wretchard"? And you think you're not being overly hysterical about this? Where do I start?

Here's what I estimate will happen in the Philippines. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo will be driven from office one way or the other. She will be replaced by vice-buffoon Noli de Castro, or some other nonentity, who will last another six months, if that. Following that, the Philippines could enter a period of complete instability, under which paradoxically enough, things will proceed more or less normally since the government hardly functions as it is. The Philippine government may then descend into the modern counterpart of Rome's Year of Four Emperors, where multiple and successive "Presidents" finish out the remainder of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's original term.

Not if we have a credible Election rerun wretchard. And this claim of yours that we're left with no other choice but Noli or some "non-entity" replacing Arroyo is total nonsense. Btw, you do sound like pro-Arroyo columnist Max Soliven, who keeps shouting that the Philippines "will collapse" if we get rid of the illegitimate Arroyo. Is the fake president really worth keeping, Wretchard? Are we better off with her even though everybody knows she is corrupt and has no credibility left?

Then the real danger will begin. It is hard to predict the exact form of the peril but it may take either the shape of a coup de etat attempt against a discredited State or one of the "Presidents" may set up a rival capital in a regional center like Cebu in the Visayas or Davao City in Mindanao. If that point is reached there will probably be clamor for international intervention under the auspices of a regional body like ASEAN under which a caretaker government will be appointed until UN supervised (yeah I know) elections are held to re-establish legitimacy. It would be a catastrophe of the first order.

LMAO! After reading this quote, tell me why I should still take you and your blog seriously, Wretchard? You seem competent re military affairs (you're retired ex-military perhaps? hope you're not the Carlos Garcia type), but you have a blind spot on RP politics.

The talk re Mindanao, Cebu and Ilocos seceding is as believable as the talk from Blue State Democrats that they will secede from "Jesusland" after Bush won his second term in office.

And you failed to mention that those making the noise re seceding are staunch Gloria Macapagal Arroyo allies like Mayor Duterte and Juetenglord Chavit Singson of Ilocos Sur. So, should we now call them President Duterte of Mindanao, President Chavit of Ilocos Republic and Cebu president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo?

Personally, I think they're full of hot air.

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- No Credible Alternatives???
- My reply to Wretchard
- Overly Optimistic in Iraq. Overly Pessimistic in RP