Quick comment on John Nery's reaction

I agree with John on some of his points. Comment ko lang yung iba:

From NewsStand:

Despite John Marzan's earnest good cheer I cannot but take surveys seriously.

Well, pabiro lang yung sinabi ko na "don't trust surveys". May ganito ;) at :p pa nga eh.

(although SWS screwed up big time in the exit poll here and here. and i've also discussed about Mercy Abad and her organization's role in gathering data for all three survey orgs [SWS, Pulse Asia and NFO Trends] during the 2004 election campaign. start reading from my earliest post re abad.)

Did Joseph Estrada have good numbers back in late 2000 and early 2001? Relative to Gloria Arroyo's dismal numbers, I guess the answer is yes. But relative to Estrada's own previously stratospheric ratings, his net satisfaction index of positive 9 in December 2000 was in fact a fall from grace. (Again, I am uncomfortable with the use of net numbers, but that is what SWS and Pulse Asia offer us. But a look at both the gross satisfaction rating [44 percent, down from 49 from September 2000] and gross dissatisfaction rating [35, up from 31] suggests that Estrada was weakening politically.)

Weakening a bit... yes, but he still had the support of most people then. Erap's numbers were something GMA would kill for now. And did i also mention that most people didn't want estrada to resign then?

Unlike Arroyo.

I believe ARroyo has one of the lowest trust and approval ratings among the presidents in RP history, IIRC.

John suggests that the real moral of the story can be stated thus: "as long as you have the military's support, you can do "people power", kahit na minority lang ang gustong magpabagsak sa isang presidente na katulad ni erap." In both people-power uprisings, the military was an active component. But contrary to what RAM leader Gregorio Honasan may still think, Edsa 1986 was led by civilians; the military played catch-up. Same thing in Edsa 2001; Gen. Angelo Reyes saw the people's exuberant handwriting on the wall, and decided to withdraw support from the President who had deep-selected him. But in both instances, I think the military action (that of an ambitious minority in 1986, that of an anxious chain of command in 2001) only reflected currents in public opinion.

But what about Edsa Tres, John, where the number of people who participated were at least four times the size of Edsa Dos.

Ano kaya ang nangyari kung may military support rin sila, ala edsa dos?

In the February 26, 2006 "standoff" inside Marine headquarters in Fort Bonifacio, Marine Col. Ariel Querubin called on what he must have thought was the key to public opinion to come to his side. "I hope the bishops will not forsake us." My own take on this: Soldiers read surveys too. They watch video footage of street protests. And they can do the math.

Well, I was planning to go there (hehe...), pero nung nalaman ko na tapos na pala ang "standoff", hindi na natuloy. Anyway, I thought that if the "standoff" lasted for another day, who knows what could have happened?

Besides, don't underestimate the effect of Arroyo's aggressive CPR policy. that's gotta be a factor too, no?

Check out how Lukashenko (the incumbent Belarus dictator who cheated in this year's election) implemented his own CPR on the Belarus people too to minimize the possibility of people power. Check out how eerily similar their "new" methods are to the Arroyo admin.

(actually, if Arroyo is confident of her position, why not lift CPR?)

And Querubin should not rely on the CBCP and most bishops. The CBCP leadership supports arroyo and are even for Arroyo's CHA CHA.,

(thank god for PAGCOR)