What happened to all the secession talk?

Previous:

- GMA gave her blessings to Chavit-Duterte Secession stunt
- Reckless stunt by Duterte, Singson et al

Here's the latest from Rudy Romero on that Chavit-Duterte stunt:

I don't know if the mayor of Davao City and the governor of Ilocos Sur are poker players of any caliber or play that card game at all. I am, and over the years I have developed skill sufficient to determine (1) whether a person I am playing with is bluffing and (2) whether he intends to maintain the bluff.

At the height of the frenzy for Gloria Arroyo's resignation, the mayor of this country's third-largest metropolis, Rodrigo Duterte, and the governor of Ilocos Sur, Luis “Chavit” Singson, aired a joint threat that any first-year law student recognizes as threatened rebellion. If the members of the Gloria-resign movement were able to attain their objective they would, they thundered, pull their territorial jurisdictions out of the Republic of the Philippines and set up their own republics. He and Chavit were not joking, tough guy Rodrigo Duterte said. He would set up a Republic of Davao City, and his friend the jueteng lord of Ilocos Sur would set his own republic up north.

I don't know if Mr. Duterte and Mr. Singson think that they shook this already-much-shaken nation by making their joint threat. If they do, they've got another think coming. No one in the upper reaches of Philippine society was shaken. Indeed, most sensible Filipinos, who already know Mr. Duterte and Mr. Singson to be administrators with penchants for taking legal shortcuts, did not take their threat seriously.

They quietly attributed their outburst to political partisanship of the most impulsive kind.

Why sensible Filipinos did not accord any seriousness to the Duterte-Singson secessionist threat has to do with the realities of local politics. The assumption underlying the bravado of Messrs. Duterte and Singson is that they can bring their entire provinces - that is to say, all the people of Davao City and Ilocos Sur out with them when they march out of the Republic of the Philippines. They would have the rest of the Filipinos believe that all they have to do is blow a whistle and 100 percent of the Davao City and Ilocos Sur folk will follow them, Pied Piper-like, out of the clutches of so-called imperial Manila.

Is this a fact? Absolutely not. Many Davaoeños and Ilocos Sur residents - as I write this I don't have the 2004 election figures with me - don't like Rodrigo Duterte and Chavit Singson. They would not go anywhere with these two tough guys. Certainly, they wouldn't want to follow them out of the republic. In the case of Mr. Singson, some Ilocos Sur residents who voted for the confessed drug lord in 2004 and in earlier elections did so out of fear for Mr. Singson and his trigger-happy henchmen.

Nor can it be assumed that the Davao City and Ilocos Sur folk who like Rodrigo Duterte and Chavit Singson and voted for them last year will go along with a plan for secession and establishment of a separate republic. More to the point, their support for the candidacies of the two men cannot be taken to be cartes blanches for their territorial jurisdictions' secession from the Republic of the Philippines.

Messrs. Duterte and Singson are bound to get the shocks of their lives when they go to their constituents and ask them the monumental question, “Mag-secede ba tayo?” They will be drowned out with the “Dili” and “Hindi” responses.

Secession from the Republic of the Philippines will not be like declaring independence from Spain of the US or Japan. Nor would it be like the East Timor episode, for the inhabitants of Davao City and Ilocos Sur are not the objects of a systematic campaign of oppression by the central government.

The almost certain lack of support from their constituents is going to be fatal to the foolish threat of Duterte and Singson. But even assuming that the people of two subdivisions of this country decide to follow their leaders and secede from the republic, the task of setting up a new national administration would be enormous - to say the least - from any aspect. Establishing a civil service and a diplomatic service will be very difficult. And how about the economics of an independent existence? Will there be enough revenue to support a government? Will there be sufficient energy source? What about a financial system?

Back to the poker analogy. Are Rodrigo Duterte and Chavit Singson bluffing? Of course they are. They hold no good cards whatsoever.

Are they likely to maintain their bluff? I don't think so. These two men are simply full of hot air.

Their bluff must be called. It will be shortly.

Go ahead punks, make my day!