Monday, August 01, 2005

Mercy Abad of Trends and exit polling manipulation

From Ellen Tordesillas.

POOR Gloria Arroyo. Despite Comelec Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano as her election operator, she was still cheated by Fernando Poe, Jr. in the 2004 elections.

That was what she told DZRH's Joe Taruc last Friday.

Laugh. Or else you will cry.

Arroyo made such astounding claim as her parting shot in the interview with Taruc. It's a pity that she didn't finish the sentence although the message she tried to convey was clear enough.

She said, "Nagpapasalamat ako sa DZRH. Gumawa kayo ng exit survey, hindi ba? Noong halalan, noon natapos na 'yung halalan, sabi ng exit survey ng DZRH, 8 per cent ang aking panalo. Although, I won only finally by 3 percent. So ang ibig sabihin noon, baka ako pa ang…..(That means I was the one who was…) So in other words, whatever is the percentage, lahat ng exit surveys, sinabi ako ang nanalo, Joe. Kaya ako ang Pangulo at iyan ang panindigan ko." (All exit surveys said I was the winner, Joe. That means I'm the president and that's my stand.)

Pathetic that she has to reiterate every day that she won the election, according to exit polls.

Arroyo, of course, did not mention that the 2004 elections exit survey turned out to be to be a traumatic experience for the prestigious Social Weather Stations because it was proven wrong in Metro Manila, where FPJ won, contrary to the exit poll.

Arroyo's repeated mention of exit polls as basis of her election adds to the suspicion that it was infiltrated by her election operators without the knowledge of the survey firms' executives. It was part of a grand, sophisticated, well-oiled strategy to thwart the will of the people.

You mean people like Mercy Abad of Trends, who is pro-Arroyo?

- SWS, Pulse Asia and Mercy Abad
- Mercy Abad Again
- A look back at the SWS Exit Poll fiasco

Anyway, it doesn't really matter because sabi ni Bill Luz of NAMFREL na "absolutely credible" raw ang last election!

More from Tordesillas:

Sources said, long before election day, Arroyo and her operatives had decided by how much she should win. They couldn’t make it too big because it would be unbelievable. But it had to be over a million votes.

A source close to the Arroyo campaign said they had in mind the doubt that had haunted Fidel Ramos because of his unconvincing margin of a little more than 850,000 over Miriam Santiago in 1992. It’s interesting to note that the person who operated for Ramos in 1992 was with Arroyo in 2004.

After Arroyo’s operatives had taken care of the surveys, which helped condition the public’s mind to an Arroyo victory, it was then the job of former Comelec Commissioner and his gang to make sure that the election results supported the exit poll figures. The problem was, in Manila, where party representatives and media watched closely, Arroyo’s co-conspirators couldn’t do much. They had to get the needed numbers in other areas.

Former Senator John OsmeƱa, who ran under Arroyo’s ticket in the 2004 elections, is now saying that she could not have won by over one million votes in Cebu, his province. He said based on the study he commissioned in connection with his electoral protest, Arroyo won only by about 621,000 over FPJ.

Mindanao was Arroyo’s hope to get the numbers she wanted, never mind if actual votes cast didn’t support them or if the figures reflected in the certificate of canvass were more than the number of registered voters.

That’s the meaning of her famous conversation with Garcillano in the morning of May 29, 2004 where she asked "I will still lead by more than one M overall? … It cannot be less than one M?" To which Garcillano replied, "Pipilitin Ma’am natin yan. (We will force that ma’am.)

Garcillano’s operations were once again recalled last week with the revelations of Archbishop Oscar Cruz and jueteng witness Sandra Cam of Arroyo’s meeting in her La Vista residence with Comelec regional directors and Lilia Pineda, wife of alleged jueteng Lord Rodolfo "Bong" Pineda. There were reports that former Isabela Gov. Faustino Dy Jr. was also present in the meeting. Cam claimed that Pineda handed out P2 million to each Comelec official.

A number of Comelec regional directors have issued statements about those La Vista meetings. Comelec National Capital region director Ferdinand Rafanan said he was not invited. There were also others who said they were invited but they didn’t go.

But other details of those meetings are slowly coming out. A source said Arroyo met with Comelec officials twice. The meetings were reportedly arranged by Southern Tagalog regional director Juanito "Johnny" Icaro.

Inquirer had a statement from Icaro who said that if he did receive P2 million, then Mrs. Arroyo would not have lost heavily in all 10 provinces of the region.

Or was it a case of despite their dagdag-bawas FPJ’s lead remained overwhelming?


But Icaro has a lot of explaining to do about his conversations with Garcillano on May 25 and 26, 2005. In both conversations, he was talking about Cotabato City, way way out of his official jurisdiction. They also referred to Lintang Bedol, provincial election supervisor for Maguindanao, assigned to Sultan Kudarat for May 2004 and chairman of the Cotabato City board of canvassers. There were allegations of massive dagdag-bawas in the two areas under Bedol.

Part of the conversation between Icaro and Garcillano on May 25, 2004::

Icaro: Sir, good evening. Sir, Johnny po ito. Sir, tapos na po ang Cotabato City?

Garcillano: Hinihintay ko yung i-fax ni Bedol.

Icaro: Ano kaya, nagawan kaya ng paraan sir?

Garcillano: Oo. Ang akin, sabi ko, kwarenta mahigit ang kailangan para um-over siya. As of this afternoon, 39.

Icaro: Ang hinihintay lang po ay Cotabato City, ano po sir?

Garcillano: Oo, pero may konti pa sa Lanao Sur.

Icaro: Ah yung anim na municipalities. Panalo daw siya dun eh.

Garcillano: Mananalo siya talaga. Nandun si Louie, Macarambon eh. Pababantayan ko.

Icaro: Opo, opo.

Garcillano: Kaya nga sabi kung makapanalo siya ng 20 to 25,000, mag-celebrate na tayo.

Icaro: San po ba kayo, nasan kayo sir?

Garcillano: Nandito ako sa kwan, Westin Plaza.

Icaro: Hayaan nyo, ipapahanda ko yung mga kwan sir, basta’t nakwan eh aking ipapahanda yung para sa ating mga bata.

Icaro followed up again with Garcillano on the Cotabato City votes the next day:

Icaro: Ano pong balita sa Cotabato City?

Garcillano: Wala pa.

Icaro: Wala pa po? Sir, ano kaya, nagawan kaya ng paraan ni Bedol?

Garcillano: Kung talagang ano yan, sa akin basta ayos na kami. Yun lang kung hindi makakaya dun sa Calami. Pero wag nilang zero-hin kasi mahirap yung...

If Arroyo and her operators think that by keeping Garcillano from the public, the truth about the 2004 election fraud would be forgotten, she is wrong. People talk. And as Chavit Singson showed, there is no honor among thieves.

Tama.

Previous:

- Conrado de Quiros on NAMFREL and "Civil Society"
- More on COMELEC Commissioner Ben Abalos
- CBCP: We don't support Archbishop Cruz's Juetengate expose

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