Reacting to Greg Sheridan's GLORIAGATE article

His article is an interesting read, but he got a few things wrong. Can't blame him though, since judging from the content of his article, he probably gets most of his info from the Philippine Mainstream Media and other top Filipino blogs (they tend to be pro-Arroyo, unfortunately).

Greg Sheridan writes:

It is just possible to interpret her recorded conversations innocently. She claims she was checking her lead rather than asking for vote tampering.

It's possible, but you have to be a major idiot to do that.

But it's worth pausing to consider the strategic significance of what's going on in The Philippines. The National Security Committee of the Australian cabinet meets at least once a month in Canberra. It meets much more often than that when necessary. It has come to the conclusion that the country in Southeast Asia that is the weakest link in the war on terror, with the biggest challenge and least capacity to meet it, is The Philippines.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade recently updated its travel warning for the eastern Malaysian province of Sabah because of intelligence warnings that terrorists were planning to kidnap Western tourists. It's not Malaysian terrorists that DFAT is worried about but terrorists from the nearby southern Philippines.

The most senior US officials confirm that Washington is much more worried about The Philippines than Indonesia, in terms of Islamist terrorism as well as economic stagnation.

You're right Greg. But why is that? Who surrendered to the terrorist demands and ordered a troop pullout to free Angelo dela Cruz? Remember how awful and angry you guys felt at that time, because it was considered a major political setback for the Coalition allies. Like Rumsfeld said, "Weakness is provocative."

And why is this administration pursuing a strategy of appeasement by returning all the captured terror bases like Camp Abubakar back to the MILF? Some of those bases are being used again to train Jemaah Islamiya jihadists, but this government does nothing or looks the other way.

This week the political crisis plunged The Philippines' peso to 56.19 to the US dollar, near its record low of 56.45. Despite huge remittances from millions of Filipinos working abroad, economic growth this year is predicted to be 4.75 per cent -- not quite catastrophic, but not nearly enough to make any impression on poverty or unemployment in The Philippines, which has one of the highest birthrates in the world.

Well, the problem here is that the ultra-conservative Arroyo is toeing the Church position and doesn't support the use of condoms or pills. Most of the government money that's supposed to be used to buy contraceptives have been diverted to the Couples for Christ to teach poor Filipinos Church-approved methods (like the unreliable "Rhythm method") to avoid pregnancy.

Through the 1980s and '90s, when the communist New People's Army insurgency was very active, Australians were regarded as the second most likely foreign target of NPA terrorist attacks after Americans. In the past few years most Philippines terrorism has been directed at the state, or at sowing terror among civilian Filipinos. But intelligence agencies have picked up plans by extremists to attack targets with a higher Western profile. Again, it is just common sense that Australians and Australian interests will be a likely target.

While the West is understandably focused on Islamist terror, especially groups such as the Abu Sayyaf, arising out of the rebellious Mindanao province in the south, the communist movement is undergoing a rebirth. Philippines analysts report, dismayingly, that whereas the NPA was formerly a middle-class movement of educated urban radicals, it is now recruiting significant numbers of impoverished peasants.

While the communist movement is geographically dispersed, it is strongest north of Manila, in central and northern Luzon. Unlike Islamist terrorism, it has something to say to the bulk of the Philippines population that is not Muslim.

Oh please, don't overstate the "commie threat". If I have to guess how much "support" it is getting from the population, it probably about less the 1%. LMAO!

Not all the recent news is bad. Arroyo, though a timid reformer, has got a better tax system and has collected more tax than ever before.

That's mainly because she has increased our taxes, Mr. Sheridan. And if she was really serious re reforming, why didn't she implement these reforms back in 2001, when our country's economic problems were still managable? Why did she spend most of her time destroying Lacson and the opposition and preparing for the 2004 elections?

But there is little sign that the middle class or the Catholic Church, key players in the previous people power revolutions, have decided Arroyo must go. Although impeachment processes have begun in the Congress, analysts believe Arroyo will hang on for now.

But she is hugely damaged, and intensely vulnerable should just one more crisis break out.

I agree. But you don't need the middle class or the key players like Cory, FVR, or Sin to succeed in people power. What you need is the military. Check Edsa Tres.

And if she "survives" GLORIAGATE, which I doubt, then that is not as good a news as you want to make it look like, Greg. It means that we as a people have accepted massive cheating, corruption, weakness on terrorism, incompetence, and lying from the highest official in the land. Every Tom, Dick and Harry can cite the president as an example if he gets caught stealing or cheating in the future.

The ability of her Government to pursue desperately needed economic reform, or to resolve either the communist or Islamist insurgencies, looks weaker than ever.

In a nation of 85 million at the heart of Southeast Asia, this is bad news for everyone, not least Australia.

Our ability to pursue reforms and resolve the Islamist insurgencies will get worse the longer she stays in power because she has no credibility and legitimacy left. Like Sen. Lugar said, "it's time to cut clean" and resign, Mrs. Arroyo.

For the good of this country.