Tuesday, December 06, 2005

This is not good, Bob. Not good.

From Malaya's frontpage:

Former NEDA chief warns of meltdown
Hold the bubbly, Palace told

BY REGINA BENGCO

FORMER planning secretary Cielito Habito yesterday said the economy is headed for a meltdown, not on the verge of a takeoff as claimed by President Arroyo.

Habito, in a lecture before a coalition of women at the Manila Polo Club in Makati City, said economic growth has been slowing down over the last six quarters.

He said this holds true for investments, government spending, growth in personal consumption spending, exports, imports, and equity and foreign exchange market.

The lecture of Habito, who served in the Cabinet of President Fidel Ramos but now runs an Ateneo de Manila University-based think tank, was titled "Too Early to Party, or The Real Score on the Philippine Economy."

He said inflation is significantly up, unemployment and underemployment are up and the outlook is cloudy due to oil price uncertainties. He said the Philippines’ credit outlook is down but its neighbors are getting upgrades and business confidence is largely pessimistic.

He said private and public construction, which used to be improving, are also low. He said prices, jobs, income and other indicators are moving in the wrong direction.

He said government revenue performance took a dive in July after Guillermo Parayno Jr. resigned as internal revenue commissioner, got a little better in August, but again fell short of target in September.

He said the better revenue collection in August was due to the fact that a large taxpayer was arm-twisted to pay up and another company was also made to cough up.

"Something happened after Parayno," he said.

He said there is a slowdown in the best-performing sector which is services, which includes the telecommunications sector.

"I used to say that the economy is being propped up by the Filipinos’ love affair with text but even that is slowing down," he said.

Read the whole thing. What a wake up call.

UPDATE: This doesn't help either.

RP corruption found worsening

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HONG KONG – Multinationals perceive corruption is getting worse in the Philippines and Thailand but is declining elsewhere in Asia, a report released on Monday shows.

India, China and Indonesia and Vietnam still had high levels of corruption but their governments were seen to be making headway in fighting the problem, according to a survey by a Hong Kong-based think-tank, Political & Economic Risk Consultancy Ltd.

China is making the most progress, it said.

The survey respondents were 96 executives of multinationals and banks with regional responsibilities for Asia.

Among 12 Asian economies covered, managers cited corruption as worst in Indonesia, followed by Vietnam, then the Philippines and India.

In the Philippines they worried that well-placed officials appeared to brush aside accusations that corruption was a problem.

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