Gloria readies exit plan; ‘Perfect Storm’ plot set
PALACE TO STAGE COUP, INSTALL ‘NEW ORDER’ WITH LOYAL GENERALS ANOINTING 3-MAN ‘JUNTA’
By Ninez Cacho-Olivares Editor in-Chief
Wednesday, 12 14, 2005
President Arroyo is ready to leave Malacañang, but only after her exit plan will have been perfected to the point of her military generals and close aides mounting a Palace-led coup d'etat that will then establish a "New Order" whose members, said to be three, whom she herself has anointed, after forging an iron-clad deal with them based on specific conditions imposed by her that have to be agreed to by the New Order and followed strictly.
The term used for her exit is "disengagement."
The Palace coup plot has been named "Perfect Storm."
A perfect storm is said to be a phenomenon which occurs very rarely and happens only when there is a coming together of three storm fronts, producing this type of storm.
The establishment of the New Order with a three-man civilian junta but with residual powers lodged in her loyal generals, a confidential report pointed out, will be in place, with the approval of the George Bush government.
The Palace-staged coup, or what was described in an earlier confidential report which the Tribune made public on Nov. 3 as the "revolt from within" as one of Mrs. Arroyo's exit options, will be followed by a series of "accidental deaths" of opposition leaders as a way of eliminating her foes and the jailing of others, as a way of marginalizing them, a Palace insider who leaked out the report stated.
To keep the people in line, the military and police officials whom the President has tapped to take over the reins of government will be applying the full force of the calibrated preemptive response policy, which, the insider pointed out, means shooting demonstrators down.
The New Order, under the deal she forged with the group, will not only take over the reins of government but will also guarantee her and her family's protection against any and all lawsuits and even allow her to access "resources" here and abroad, the confidential document obtained by the Tribune yesterday detailed.
The same confidential paper also marked the "elimination" and "marginalization" of the political opposition as well as those within the administration party, as identified by Mrs. Arroyo, through "Operation Plan Clean-up," which will go into full operation "the day after" the Perfect Storm, or the exit of the President.
This is deemed essential by Mrs. Arroyo and her New Order group as the pinpointed individuals are seen by her as elements who may rock the "disengagement" and the "day after set-up."
The military-Arroyo coup d'etat hints at installing a group of loyal generals to be known as the New Order that would then anoint, as agreed upon with the President, a three-man civilian council.
This is to be done with the agreement of the US government, the paper stated.
From the two-page document entitled "Detailed Exit Plan of GMA" with the subhead "Scenario X:Disengagement," the Arroyos' exit from Malacanang and the Philippines is to become operational with the expected developments in the socio-economic and political fronts which will impact negatively on her and her government.
The paper said "the eye of the storm is expected to unfold by the last week of December and develop into a Perfect Storm by middle of Jan. 2006 the earliest, or at the latest early weeks of Feb. 2006."
On Nov. 22 this year, the Tribune quoted a Palace insider as having disclosed a planned civilian-military coup codenamed "December Storm" that would oust the President.
What the insider did not say then was the plan called for a stage-managed Palace coup that would install the President's "anointed" military generals to keep the "anointed" civilian officials in line and for this "council" to create a "New Order."
The document in Tribune's possession speaks of the eye of the December Storm that is expected to develop into a "Perfect Storm."
This, it was pointed out in the document, is supported by the "temperature (XYZ) of 10 November."
But as early as October, in a "mopping-up" meeting with Mrs. Arroyo, it was agreed that in order to "pursue the disengagement," certain conditions must be in place while adhering to the timeline.
Last October, the Tribune published a confidential security situationer entitled "New Threats to Philippine Democracy," which was discussed among the Chief Executive and her trusted aides, where her exit plan options were enumerated, among which was a "revolt from within" to mean a Palace-staged coup d'etat where she makes an exit while putting in charge her chosen "successors," with the iron-clad guarantee of presidential protection for her.
She exits, however, following a set of conditions, where monitoring shall be continued to flush out any indications of deviations and that any response to these deviations shall be cleared by Mrs. Arroyo and "the group," the paper said.
One of the first conditions mentioned in the confidential paper is to "establish 'safety nets' within the military and security of business sectors and the bureaucracy (executive, legislative and judiciary) that will ensure a friendly environment for Code One (CO, Mrs. Arroyo's code name) during the "day after."
The confidential Palace document also details the plan of Mrs. Arroyo and presumably, her family members, living in exile as the document speaks of one of the conditions that has to be met before making her exit, which is for the "host government agree(ing) and (to be) prepared to shelter Code One during the period of 'actualization' of the first part of the agreed 'package of settlement' with the New Order... making sure that the controlling Order is faithful to the provisions of the package."
Here, the confidential document refers to an earlier "executive summary" of Nov. 5, 2005.
Another condition imposed by Code One, or Gloria Arroyo is for "(shared) jurisdiction over available resources, here and abroad, to continue until the New Order manifest(s) and actualize(s) the three elements committed to Code One. Thereafter, control shall be transferred to the NO's (New Order's) anointed hand (to be jointly agreed by CO and NO. For this purpose, the second meeting between the concerned parties and hopefully, the final one is set on 16 December)," the document stated.
There was yet another sine qua non condition imposed by Mrs. Arroyo and her anointed successors, which is to get the consent of the US government for her "disengagement" plan.
The paper states: "Sam's (code name for the United States/Bush government) consent to the 'end-state' of the disengagement is secured. Its operational term is submitted by CO/NO to the (US) Embassy to assure Sam that any "bridging scenario" will not jeopardize his anti-terrorist initiatives involving covering Manila and the region (i.e. Response-basing system)."
The document also speaks of a "push-and-pull" operation (that) shall be sharpened to allow the CO to calibrate the situation and allow the disengagement plan to work.
The Palace insider who leaked the document to the Tribune suggested that the "disengagement" of Mrs. Arroyo will have to involve her "loyal" military, as the coup can not be pulled off successfully.
She also needs her loyal generals to provide her "long-term" protection.
The generals she anoints to establish the New Order will also be able to "keep in line" the three-man council, or junta, the Palace insider explained, saying for the US government to agree to Mrs. Arroyo's "disengagement" plan will mean having Noli de Castro, the current Vice President, in that council, but without any powers to speak of, as the other two will be directing the whole civilian show with the military and police generals watching their moves.
A US Embassy report that was leaked to a newspaper had quoted a US official expressing his dismay at De Castro as a successor to Mrs. Arroyo.
"To give it a constitutional flavor, Noli will have to be in that three-man council," the source said.
While the Palace insider mentioned two possible "anointed" members of the planned council, such as Speaker Jose de Venecia and/or former President Fidel Ramos and Angelo Reyes, current Interior chief, who would be the probable 3 civilians running the show, for the US government's acceptability of the Palace staged coup, the source said there has been no specific mention of these civilians.
Mrs. Arroyo is said to be planning her exit because of the dire developments that are sure to impact on the political, economic and social fronts.
Already, despite her mantra of the Philippine economy poised for takeoff, her top economic manager has stated that the economy is on a downturn and that the takeoff is far from becoming a reality.
Other economists, such as former Neda director Cielito Habito, have warned of the coming economic meltdown soon.
This may bring about a social disorder of great magnitude that could blow up into rioting.
At an Oct. 5 briefing, the national security document that spelled out the exit options of Mrs. Arroyo, a notation said: "The real peso value will dive after Christmas when OFW remittances will contract and government machine is (not) able to manage market."
The October document also mentioned that the military was nearing its "tipping point."
UPDATE: More here:
‘Storms’ to be calibrated by GMA, for final exit
Thursday, 12 15, 2005
Exiting from Malacañang needs more work to be done to polish and perfect the "Perfect Storm" Palace-initiated coup plot, the confidential documents obtained by the Tribune two days ago disclosed.
This would mean encouraging, among others, divisions within the church, civil society and other sectors, as well as playing up Charter change (Cha-cha) while stage managing an escalation of "atrocities" in Mindanao.
Contracts and fund-raising projects are also to be completed before she makes her exit, the papers said.
Events will be managed and manipulated to allow President Arroyo, codenamed "Code One" to "calibrate the situation," thereby allowing the disengagement plan to work.
Another operation was referred to in that document, which was termed the "push and pull operation that needs "sharpening, the two- page confidential document stated.
This push and pull operation involves the managing and manipulation of certain developments to "delay the convergence of events, among which would be a focus on the "prices of basics (petroleum products, water, power) being minimized, falling under (strategy two)."
There is also her plan to engage in "market intervention to project favorable foreign exchange," the management of "fund releases to LGUs (local government units) to maintain support and dissuade climate of bankruptcy" as well as the need to "prioritize new recruits, and manage public deficit," with the intention to delay the convergence of events.
As published by the Tribune Wednesday, the exit plan of Mrs. Arroyo expects "evolving developments on socio-economic and political fronts compounded by world environment" to converge, with the "eye of the storm... expected to unfold by last week of December and develop into a perfect storm by middle of January 2006, the earliest, or at the latest early weeks of February 2006."
Part of the manipulations to be done to "delay the convergence of events," the documents said, is to play up the Charter change issue. It appears, from the document that Speaker Jose de Venecia, whom the Palace insider mentioned as a probable council member after the coup and the disengagement plan becomes operational, is in on the Perfect Storm plot, even if the Charter change efforts are also meant to keep former President Fidel Ramos and his group (of military and former Cabinet members) at bay.
The document reads, as part of the push and pull operation: "Maintain, if not deepen, Cha-cha effort to keep FR (Fidel Ramos) and his group at bay and allow disengagement plan to work without interruptions from them."
It also stated that "JV (Jose de Venecia) shall be apprised of the situation on (a) need (to know) basis.
From the documents, it also appears that even as the two are probable successors after Mrs. Arroyo's planned exit, the President does not completely trust them, as the confidential paper also states that "the elements of FR and JV must be continuously monitored and checked."
The reason for the continuously monitoring of Ramos and De Venecia, it was learned, was that thier people have been discovered by Palace intelligence to have "misrepresented Mrs. Arroyo to the United States Government, which the paper pointed out has "been affecting the disengagement timetable."
As published Wednesday, the confidential Palace document said the consent of the US government, codenamed "Sam" was needed for the "end-state" of the disengagement to be secured.
"Its operational term is submitted by CO/NO (New Order) to the (US) Embassy to assure Sam that any "bridging scenario" will not jeopardize his anti-terrorist initiatives involving covering Manila and the region (i.e. response basing system)."
More of the "push-and-pull" operation expected to be sharpened, again to allow the President to calibrate the situation and allow the disengagement plan to work include promoting the divisions within the Church, Academe, Business, Congress, Local Government, Executive, Civil Society and media to assuage the storm —any gains from these operations will give CO a longer lease of time to maximize gains from disengagement plan."
It will be recalled that in an earlier document that contained the National Security Briefing of Oct. 5 this year, exit options were already being mulled, and the convergence of events already being noted.
The change in the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) leadership was a cause for Palace worry. There is the division already existing among bishops, along with the business groups. Civil society is also divided.
Another essential in the push and pull operation, the document said was the completion of "contracts and major fund raising measures."
Also stated in the document in the "push and pull operation is the plan to have a "Mindanao escalation of atrocities (that) shall be continued to refocus the attention of the restive AFP (Armed Forces of the Philippines) and PNP (Philippine National Police) members from destabilization works, as well as defuse public attention to the impact of the convergence of events."
The Palace insider explained that this could mean more bombings in Mindanao, "to set the stage for justification of the 'Perfect Storm' coup plot, where Mrs. Arroyo's "calibrated preemptive response policy" will be applied to the fullest.
There have also been twin bombings, one of which was the First Gentleman Jose Miguel "Mike" Arroyo's building in Perea St., Makati City, which has been pointed to as being an "inside job" as the street is blocked both ways by presidential security group members. Mr. Arroyo no longer holds office at the LTA Building.
Interestingly, part of the plan focused on the role of the presidential spouse, including a report from the US Embassy dated Oct. 30 this year which document, apparently is in the possession of Mrs. Arroyo.
"The role of FGM (First Gentleman Mike Arroyo) shall be ascertained pursuant to the instruction of the CO (Code One or Mrs. Arroyo) and in light of the concerns expressed by the plan cooperators during the October Meeting, including the Embassy report of 30 October 2005," it said.
It was also stated in the document that "A strategic media plan shall be continuously updated to ensure its responsiveness to the Plan. Reorganization in strategic and tactical position in government (OP [operational plan] included shall be slowly implemented to complement the Plan).
A second meeting between Mrs. Arroyo and the parties concerned in the plot Perfect Storm is scheduled for tomorrow, the 16th of December.
Meanwhile, the US government has denied its involvement in the Palace -staged military coup that will pave the way for the establishment of a council or junta, but stopped short of expressing categorical support for Mrs. Arroyo.
US Embassy spokesman Matthew Lussenhop said they are not aware of any exit plan being prepared for Mrs. Arroyo to give way to a three-man junta, a deal she reportedly forged with military generals.
"We don't support extra-constitutional efforts or means to effect change in the Philippine government," Lussenhop said during a telephone interview.
The embassy official said they believe that a military coup or emergency rule of that nature will have a bad impact on the Philippines.
"We support the rule of law. We wouldn't support drastic measures. We've got a stable partner in the Philippines," he said.
But when asked if Washington supports the Arroyo presidency, Lussenhop said: "We have said in the past that we are confident that the political situation in the Philippine is stable."
Lussenhop stressed that Washington will not interfere in the domestic issues of the Philippines.
"We see the Philippines as a partner. We don't meddle (in the internal affairs of your government)," he said.
Mrs. Arroyo's popularity ratings continue to drop due to controversies confronting her presidency, such as the poll fraud allegations.
Protest actions calling the President's removal have also snowballed rapidly since exposes of 2004 election fraud and family corruption scandals were made public earlier this year.
Following the President's admission that she was the voice behind the controversial wiretapped conversations with former Commission on Elections Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano, the US has distanced itself from the Arroyo government.
This was contrary to the embassy's previous expression of "unequivocal" support to the President.
Since then, Washington has maintained its official line on the Philippine political crisis, saying that US support is for institutions and democratic processes and not to individual persons.
As earlier reported, a three-man civilian junta with residual powers will be preceded by the exit of Mrs. Arroyo and the establishment of the New Order which will usher in the three man junta.
Under the plan, the junta will not only take over the reins of government but will also guarantee the President and her family's protection and immunity from any and all lawsuits. It will also reportedly allow her to access "resources" here and abroad.
The US Embassy said Washington is not aware of such report.
"We have not seen the report itself," Lussenhop said. NCO with additional reporting from Michaela P. del Callar
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